(29) PREDICTING DRAFT POSITION USING THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE COMBINE MEASUREABLES IN THE 2022 NFL ROOKIE CLASS

The National Football League (NFL) conducts an annual Combine to assess anthropometrics and athletic ability for hundreds of collegiate athletes in preparation of the NFL Draft. NFL front offices use metrics gathered during the Combine, partly, to determine which athlete to draft to their teams.  Research is conflicted on the usefulness of the NFL Combine in determining draft position. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine if the anthropometric and performance measures of the athletes invited to the 2022 NFL Combine predicted draft position in the 2022 NFL Draft. Methods: Data from four anthropometric (Height; Weight; Hand Size; Arm Length) and three performance tests (40 Yard Sprint; Vertical Jump; Broad Jump) as well as draft position (1-262) of 315 collegiate athletes were analyzed from open-source databases. Any player who was invited to the Combine but not drafted was assigned the number 263 to be included in the analyses. A forward, multiple-linear regression model was calculated to predict draft position based on NFL Combine data (α = 0.05).  Additionally, players were separated into positions (Offensive Line; Defensive Back; Defensive Line; Running Back; Linebacker; Quarterback; Tight End; Wide Receiver) and analyzed for potential relationships within each position group. Results: Of the 315 athletes that participated in the Combine, 218 of them (69.2%) were drafted.  A significant regression omnibus equation was found (F = 19.80, p < 0.01), with an R² of 0.25, with a regression equation of: Draft Position = -448.66 + 272.44 (40 Yard Sprint) – 4.765 (Weight) – 37.55 (Hand Size), 95% CIs (-785.54 to -111.77), (195.06 to 349.81), (-1.84 to -0.77) and (-62.42 to -12.69), respectively. Additionally, significant prediction equations existed among individual position groups: Running Backs (R² = 0.37; Broad Jump, Hand Size); Tight Ends (R² = 0.60; 40 Yard Sprint); Offensive Linemen (R² = 0.36; Hand Size, 40 Yard Sprint); Wide Receivers (R² = 0.29; 40 Yard Sprint); Defensive Linemen (R² = 0.52; 40 Yard Sprint, Weight); and Linebackers (R² = 0.37; 40 Yard Sprint). No significant prediction model existed for Quarterbacks or Defensive Backs. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the testing conducted at the 2022 NFL Combine could predict draft position among 2022 NFL Rookies, though the R² prediction varied between individual position groups. Of note, 40 Yard Sprint performance and Hand Size were the largest contributors to draft selection from the sampled population. Practical Applications: These findings provide further insight on the usefulness of the NFL Combine to predict draft position. However, due to the 40 Yard Sprint’s inclusion in the overall model – as well as in multiple position group prediction models – it appears NFL front offices value speed as a determinate of draftability. While the 40 Yard Sprint is not ecological valid application to football speed, the assessment provides value. Strength and conditioning professionals should continue to emphasize sprint technique (emphasizing the start) and build lower body power to maximize straight-line speed during NFL draft preparation training, particularly for the NFL Combine and on-campus pro days.  

Acknowledgements: None