(53) RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN NBA COMBINE PERFORMANCE, DRAFT SELECTION, AND CAREER PERFORMANCE

Physical performance data collected during the National Basketball Association (NBA) combine has been shown to be associated with early career performance (1-3 years). However, the relationships between combine performance data, draft selection, and long-term career success have not been examined.

Purpose: To determine if NBA combine performance data is associated with NBA draft selection, as well as determining if NBA combine performance data and/or draft selection are associated with long term NBA career success.

Methods: NBA combine data (2000-2011), draft selections (2000-2011), and career performance data (2000-2022) were accessed using publicly available databases. Data from the NBA combine and draft were included until the 2011 NBA draft, to ensure all draftees between 2000-2011 had a minimum of 10 years they could have played in the NBA. Only players who attended the NBA combine and were subsequently drafted were included in the analysis. Combine performance data included in the analysis were: Lane agility (AGILITY, seconds), Three-quarter court sprint (SPRINT, seconds), Standing vertical jump (VStand, in), Maximum vertical jump (VMax, in), and Bench press (BENCH, number of repetitions lifting 185 lbs/83.9kgs). NBA draft pick (PICK) was determined as the overall pick in the draft in which a player was selected (i.e. #1-30 first round, 31-60 second round). Career performance was determined using Wins Shared per 48 minutes (WS/48), which estimates an individual player’s contribution to team success, while also accounting for playing time. Partial correlations controlling for position were determined between: PICK and combine data; WS/48 and combine data, as well as PICK.

Results: 376 players who participated in the NBA combine and were drafted were included in the analysis. Very weak negative relationships between VStand (r = -0.120, p=0.020), VMax (r = -0.133, p=0.010), and PICK were observed. No other significant relationships were found between AGILITY, SPRINT, BENCH, and PICK (r = -0.095 - 0.082, p >0.066). A weak-moderate relationship was found between PICK and WS/48 (r = -0.339, p< 0.001). Significant but very weak relationships were observed between SPRINT (r=-0.130, p=0.012), VStand (r=0.101, p=0.05), VMax (r=0.111, p=0.033) and WS/48.

Conclusions: The strongest predictor of future NBA success was the pick at which a player was selected in the NBA draft. Only very weak relationships between NBA combine data and either draft pick or future NBA success were observed. These data suggest that while physical attributes may be a large contributor to success at lower levels of basketball, above an undefined threshold, physical attributes fail to separate basketball players who are selected early in the NBA draft, or go on to achieve long-term career success. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Physical performance testing in the NBA combine may confirm an individual’s physical attributes, but does not assist scouts and coaches to identify future success.


Acknowledgements: None