(66) CHARACTERISTICS OF PLAYER DEVELOPMENT THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURE SUCCESS IN THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

There are no known predictors of future success in the National Hockey League (NHL) amongst players drafted in the NHL draft. However, by examining key draft and player development characteristics between players of varying NHL success, we could identify critical time frames and/or performance indicators associated with future success.

Purpose: To compare player draft and development characteristics between NHL players of varying levels of career success.

Methods: Publicly available databases were used to identify players drafted by NHL teams between 2000-2011. Draftees were then grouped by positions – Forwards (F, including Wing and Center), and Defensemen (D – including Left and Right), and then by success categories:  Outstanding (OUT), Above Average (AA), Average (AVE), and Below Average (BA) (see Classifying National Hockey League Players Drafted From 2000-2011 Based on Key Performance Metrics). Goaltenders were excluded from the analysis. Five key development indicators were compared among success groups for each position: Draft Pick (DP), Age at NHL Draft, time from NHL Draft to NHL Debut (seasons), Total American Hockey League Games Played (AHL), and Total NCAA Games Played (NCAA). Separate, MANOVA and subsequent ANOVA (Bonferroni post-hoc) analyses determined significant differences among success groups in development indicators, for each position group.

Results: 1221 players were included in the study (F = 798, D = 423). BA Forwards were significantly older when compared to OUT (p< 0.001), AA(p=0.009), and AVE (p=0.006) Forwards, but there were no significant age differences for Defensemen (p >0.143). OUT Forwards but not Defensemen were drafted earlier in the NHL draft (F=27.3±44.3; D=65.375.3), when compared to AA (F=60.4±62.3, p=0.031; D=70.466.6, p >0.999), AVE (F=60.4±62.3, p< 0.001; D=84.571.5, p >0.999), and BA (F=114.8±75.1, p< 0.001; D=107.472.9, p=0.074) players in each position group. There were no significant differences in the time OUT (F=1.3±1.1 seasons; D=1.61.2) and AA (F=1.9±1.4, p=0.193; D=2.31.1, p >0.999) took between being drafted and playing in the NHL. AVE Forwards (F=2.6±1.5, p< 0.001; D=2.71.7, p=0.060), and BA Forwards and Defenseman (F=3.3±1.9, p< 0.001; D=3.41.9, p< 0.001) players took longer than OUT players. The number of AHL games played was highest in the BA group, and lowest in the OUT groups (F and D both p< 0.001), but there were no between group differences in NCAA games (F: p=0.175; D: p=0.391).

Conclusion: Outstanding and Above Average NHL players are drafted higher and reach the NHL earlier than Below Average players, despite similar games played at the NCAA level. These data suggest there are key physical, technical and/or tactical skills certain players achieve within the first 1-2 seasons post-NHL draft, that increase their chance of sustaining a long and successful NHL career.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The physical, technical, and tactical development of hockey players prior to the NHL draft, and within the first 1-2 years post-NHL draft is critical to future player success. Identifying key performance indicators within this timeframe would assist practitioners and coaches to identify player weaknesses and optimize an individual’s training.


Acknowledgements: None