(57) CLASSIFYING NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE PLAYERS DRAFTED FROM 2000-2011 BASED ON KEY PERFORMANCE METRICS

Abstract Details: Hockey players who are drafted by a National Hockey League team (NHL) are not guaranteed playing time or long-term success. However, before physical characteristics and player development patterns can be identified that may suggest or predict future success, a quantitative model of classifying career success must be established. 

Purpose:  To categorize NHL players drafted between 2000-2011 based on NHL performance metrics and career longevity between 2000-2022. 

Methods:  Publicly available databases were used to identify players drafted by NHL teams between 2000–2011, as well as individual career statistics from the 2000-2001 to the 2021-2022 NHL seasons. These dates were chosen to ensure all draftees between 2000-2011 had a minimum of 10 years they could have played in the NHL. Draftees were then separated by positions – Forwards (F, including Wing and Center) and Defensemen (D, including Left and Right). Goaltenders were excluded from the analysis. Forwards were classified using Points per Game (Ppg; includes both assists and goals), and Defenseman were classified using Assists per Game (Apg; includes assists only). Both player groups were also classified according to years in the NHL, as well as Games per year (GP). Players were classified into 4 success groups as outlined in Table 1. A player’s final classification was based on their lowest category of years played, GP, or their respective performance metric. 

Results:  1221 players were included in the study (F = 798, D = 423). The mean GP (F:35.7±23.9; D:33.5±23.3), Ppg (0.322±0.312, F only), and Apg (0.177±0.189, D only) were calculated. 88 players were classified as outstanding (F = 65, 8% of all F; D = 23, 5% of all D), 126 as Above Average (F = 93, 12%; D = 33, 8%), 385 as Average (F = 230, 29%; D = 155, 37%), and 622 as Below Average (F = 410, 51%; D = 212, 50%). 

Conclusion:  The methodology devised, successfully classified NHL players into four categories of overall career success. The methodology used was quantitative, and included both in-game performance and career longevity. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The results of this classification can be used to compare physical characteristics that can predict, or are required for future NHL success.

Acknowledgements: None